The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday was the second consecutive session to be spent eintirely in negative territory, probing as low as 2100.75. It was also the second consecutive afternoon for sellers to gain traction. Like its immediate predecessor, its selling pressure failed to close under prior lows. Hold-short through the close barely failed to trigger.

Overnight action”s new info…
Saturday”s surprise rate cut by China wasn”t nearly as influential as its last rate cut in November. That”s assuming it was influential, at all. Sunday night”s 2104.00 open was only 2 points above Friday”s 2102.00 cash session close. Its surge to 2107.75 was quickly retraced to hover at 2104.25, Another surge into Europe”s opens reacted back down sharply from 2109.25. And now fresh overnight lows are attacking Friday”s 2102.00 cash session close.

If, then…
Not closing under a prior low gives the rally a significant advantage. Overnight ranging has created a little extra room for selling pressure to be expended before it can gain traction. That doesn”t prevent the open from trying. The burden of proof is still on sellers, but triggering bias-down would be sufficient. Meanwhile, the past week”s topping pattern is still vulnerable to retesting its upper-end if sellers haven”t yet retaken control.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2099.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.