The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s gap down back to Monday afternoon”s 2108.75 low extended through the morning to probe under Monday”s 2100.50 pre-open low, finally bottoming during the noon hour upon only touching the support of yesterday afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal. Rallying through the bias environment to 2107.25 then ranged sideways to close back above last week”s intraday lows.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initially sliding to 2101.75 ahead of Yellen”s overnight speech, a trading range developed back up to 2104.25. It eventually broke into a much steeper, deeper slide through Europe”s opens. Yesterday”s lows are being attacked now down to 2097.00.

If, then…
Overnight selling has been relentless, but (so far) only within yesterday”s range — yesterday afternoon”s range. Sellers haven”t accomplished anything not already done yesterday (so far). Breaking lower anyway through the open would suggest that the week-old topping pattern is already launching a downleg. Meanwhile, so long as the open isn”t breaking lower, last week”s high remains vulnerable to a retest. And its retest would still likely begin optimistically, by gapping up and/or surging through the open. ADP”s release in a half-hour is a possible catalyst to resolve the overnight dip.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2099.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.