The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Despite having consolidated for several hours right up to the open, Tuesday night”s pullback suddenly resumed at Wednesday”s open. Potential to 2088.00 was probed by a couple of points before the 10:15 bias was signaled. The entire post-open drop was recovered to test its 2099.00 opening print by 3 ticks. The balance of the session ranged sideways back down to 2092.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging inched its way back up to 2099.00 into Europe”s opens. A dip from there has been recovered to now probe above yesterday”s highs to 2100.50. BOE and ECB have kept monetary policies unchanged. Draghi”s press conference is a half-hour away.

If, then…
If yesterday”s break isn”t the week-old topping pattern”s breakout, then today”s open must reject it. It won”t be enough just to avoid resuming the decline — which would only delay its resumption by a timing window, or two. Gapping up above yesterday”s 2099.00-2099.75 highs wouldn”t earn immediate confidence, either. Rejecting yesterday”s break would all but require gapping up to and/or through Tuesday”s 2105.00-2106.00 close. Draghi”s press conferences have a reliable track record for moving markets, although that movement seems to be narrowing. 

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2095.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.