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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s gap up didn”t reach the 2103.50 pre-open high before reversing to fill the gap back down toward Wednesday”s 2096.00 close. Its reaction up made a lower high before reversing again into the noon hour, and almost 3 points into negative territory. Its recovery spent the balance of the session ranging choppily in positive territory, centered around Wednesday”s 2099.00-2099.75 highs.

Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging between 2098.00-2101.00 largely defined price action until only moments ago. A sudden 3-1/2 point surge from between 2099.00-2099.75 just attacked yesterday”s 2103.50 pre-open high to within 2 ticks.

If, then…
Overnight fluctuation ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report is often only noise. Sentiment tends to be contrarian to the actual reaction. Yesterday”s range was too narrow relative to the prior day, and this pre-open surge is too late relative to the news, for either to be considered reliably as sentiment. Maintaining a gap up would have potential back to the highs, or at least to launch a sizable morning rally. But a gap up would be vulnerable to reversing down until outlasting the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And gapping down would be vulnerable to extending through the close.

First Trade…
There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report, which is due momentarily.