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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down on the pre-open payrolls report had fulfilled the morning”s 2088.00 bias-down target. But its 2095.50 bias-down signal never recovered. The first hour”s ranging gave way through the morning to test 2079.25 support. And that gave way through the afternoon to fulfill the day”s 2066.00 target. The cash session close firmed to 2069.00, and futures drifted nearly 3 points higher.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial strength was soon retraced, and then extended, so far all the way back down to touch 2066.00.

If, then…
Fulfilling selling pressure so near the close prevents counter-trend sponsorship from gaining traction. That all but ensures probing lower lows, unless the open were to gap up sufficiently. Having held the target through one close, probing lower intraday would be vulnerable to recover. 

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2076.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2074.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2070.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2064.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.75 bias-down signal.