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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

By Rod David | March 12, 2015 - 7:51 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s gap up didn”t retrace all of Tuesday”s late break, and the open eventually resolved in a fresh low at 2032.00. Its recovery attempt into the noon hour at 2040.500 failed back down to 2032.00, as did another recovery attempt. The last failure probed slightly lower to 2030.75, ending the cash session at 2032.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
A retest of 2030.75 launched a rally back up to 2040.50. Its reaction is down has tested and retested 

If, then…
[FRONT-MONTH ROLLS FORWARD AT TODAY”S OPEN TO JUN (M)]. Yesterday”s repeated probes under prior lows all stopped short of their potential to 2029.75 (2037.00 basis Mar). That optimism can be bearish from a contrarian perspective, making 2029.75 vulnerable to being probed considerably. While its test probably can no longer be avoided, it can be delayed by gapping up and through above yesterday afternoon”s 2041.00 high to try forming a “session-long rally” setup.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2043.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2040.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and above 2037.00 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2029.25 bias-down signal.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade