The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s reaction to the FOMC Minutes was extraordinary. Its 28-point rally originated during a no-bias environment, so the afternoon”s 1933.00 bias-up signal requires an eventual retest. As does oversold RSIs at its 1918.00 low, eventually. Buyers gained no traction since the final hour”s entry wasn”t above the bias environment”s high. That didn”t prevent coming within 2 ticks of the rally”s last target at 1964.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Potential for at least a shallow correction seemed not to be on the agenda. Only a 3-point dip was allowed before recovering to higher and higher highs at 1968.50. But that has been retraced entirely, now probing 2 points under the original 3-point dip to 1957.25.

If, then…
Extending the rally higher Thursday without delay requires gapping up since Wednesday”s buyers gained no traction. That”s just half the battle, and the overnight attempt seems to be melting away. The failed overnight extension may be giving extra energy to a post-open dip.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1954.00 would be likely to test this morning”s 1950.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 1948.50 would be likely also to trigger bias-down at 10:15. Recovering to exit the open above 1964.50 would likely also trigger it.