The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s rally was good to the last drop. Its gap up to 2054.00 extended higher quickly to remove any concern that its extreme sentiment would become a sentiment extreme. Gapping up to Thursday”s close immediately retraced Friday”s decline, which had developed despite Thursday”s “session-long rally” setup having gained traction. The open fulfilled its 2066.00 target, and the morning”s high 2069.25 essentially fuflilled the leg”s 2070.00 area target. Extending higher into the final hour touched 2073.50 resistance, and a last-minute blip-up stopped 3 ticks short of 2074.75 resistance into the cash session close. Only then did price plunge to 2067.50 through the futures close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sliding into the futures close was extended down through the Globex open to 2064.75. A 3-point high range was probed temporarily up to 2070.00. Its reaction back into the overnight range extended through it to fresh lows at 2060.75.

If, then…
Will Monday”s rally fall victim to its own success? Every upleg met its target, fulfilling that much more buying pressure. The rally still gained traction for its effort by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high and by entering the final hour even higher. Is Tuesday”s session about to ignore that, like Friday”s drop ignored the traction Thursday gained. That”s what last night”s slide is threatening. But gapping down, alone, won”t be bearish — not if yesterday afternoon”s 2065.25 low is recovered through the open. It”s being probed now.. Triggering bias-down 30-45 minutes later could trend back down through the morning, returning to Friday”s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2068.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. (Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 would then put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal). Exiting the open under 2061.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2060.25 bias-down target through 10:15. (Exceeding the bias-down target would renew the bias-down signal, putting into play a lower bias-down target.)