The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s gap down under Monday afternoon”s low had triggered a “session-long decline.” Every timing with one exception was likely to probe under the prior timing window”s low, which the morning fulfilled down to 2056.25. But following the noon hour”s likely exception, no other timing probed lower. However, probes above both bias-up signals up to 2070.50 were delayed or rejected before being able to gain upside traction that could invert or invalidate the session-long decline signal. A late dip through the close fell to 2064.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Continually firming through the night eventually touched 2070.00, but that was the end of that. The three hours since then have slid relentlessly. Yesterday”s low was attacked to within 3 ticks at 2057.00. My expectations for a wild afternoon are being validated.

If, then…
Invalidating yesterday”s session-long decline setup would have made probing under yesterday”s low unlikely. Not invalidating it allowed fresh lows to remain possible, but still not required. The setup”s most relevant influence is its context, which gapping up today would have killed. The open is still some time off, but gapping down to yesterday”s low is currently indicated, so the question is whether this morning will compensate for the delay in fulfilling yesterday”s bearish signal. Gapping down might avoid extending lower as volatility becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC events. But unless the open is already the drop is credible for extending to 2053.25-2054.00 or to 2048.00-2048.75 before paralysis sets in.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2063.50-2064.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.25 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2058.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.