The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

REMINDER: TRAINING SESSION
— tonight at 6:15 ET —

Through the prior close…
“Ineffectual optimism” delayed Wednesday”s open from touching Tuesday”s 2056.25 low any closer than 3 ticks. Then it limited the retest of Tuesday”s low to momentarily piercing it by 1 point. But it finally succumbed to probing under Tuesday”s low by 4 points. That neutralized sellers just in time for a very favorable reaction to the FOMC events, surging to within 1 tick of 2100.00. Reacting down to 2088.50 left outstanding overbought RSIs at the high.

Overnight action”s new info…
A similar pattern to Tuesday night worked its way back to within 2 ticks of Wednesday”s high at 2099.00, and then slid nearly 13 points to 2086.25. 

If, then…
Post-FOMC reactions tend to be retraced entirely within one week. Probing fresh highs through this morning”s open would all but ensure that path includes a new high. Following the path to new highs would likely develop quickly, if at all. Influence from this week”s impending expiration probably exacerbated yesterday”s FOMC reaction. Slowing that reaction would suggest its influence had lapsed altogether.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2100.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2097.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be likely to trigger the 2087.75 bias-down signal.