The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap up extended to probe nearly 7 points above Wednesday”s 2099.75 FOMC reaction peak. The post-open rally extended through the noon hour. No higher high printed through the afternoon”s bias environment, which warned of impending weakness, since the session was already an uptrending Friday. A sell signal triggered under 2104.25 and bottomed 5 ticks short of its potential to 2096.00, still closing back under Wednesday”s high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s opening 5 minutes surged 6 points to 2106.00. The balance of the night drifted back down to 2100.00, and then dropped sharply to attack 2095.00 and 2094.00, and now also 2093.00. Each attack reacted up to 2097.50. The latest bounce is retesting it, too — and then some, up to 2098.25.

If, then…
Buyers gained no traction Friday, so gapping up is the only reliable path to resuming the rally today. That seems unlikely with a flat open currently indicated. There being a weekend in between, probing above Friday”s high anyway would get a benefit of the doubt. But nothing would marginalize sellers, and a fresh high would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Meanwhile, not rallying out of this morning”s open would be likely to resume the slide back to Thursday”s “lower prior highs.”

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2102.50 would be likely at least to test the 2104.50 bias-up signal, but exiting the open above Friday”s 2106.75 high is needed to make the bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Similarly, exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to test the 2094.00 bias-down signal, but under 2092.00 at 9:45 would make the bias-down signal likely to trigger.