The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon”s bias environment had triggered no-bias. But it probed above its untriggered 2054.00 bias-up signal, anyway. That “no-bias trending” up to 2058.75 required being retraced entirely, possibly down to its 2048.00 1:20pm print. And that”s where the no-bias trending”s retracement did return into the close, 5-6 points under Wednesday”s 2053.00-2054.00 close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Rallying into midnight up to 2057.75 came within 1 point of yesterday”s no-bias trending high. A bigger reversal down extended to 2041.00. That has now reacted back up to being almost unchanged at 2048.00.

If, then…
Yesterday”s negative close did not signal that the week”s decline had ended. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for yesterday”s efforts, so trending attempted either way beyond the 2048.00-2054.00 range will remain vulnerable to returning back into the range, if not also through it more substantially in the opposite direction. Extending beyond the 2041.00-2059.00  range will be difficult, assuming that either end is tested. Trending from one bias signal to the other would be much simpler and more reliable. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2042.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2043.75 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.