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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s open was preceded by a blip-up to fresh highs at 2090.50 in reaction to GE”s buyback announcement. The move had complexity, trending to higher highs with its interim low holding above Thursday”s 2087.00 high. That “complexity” made the overnight high”s retest likely. Initially reacting down to 2084.50 failed to gain traction. The overnight attraction above reinstated upward momentum that became entrenched by “Friday factors” that create barriers to intraday reversals. The balance of the session trended up to 2096.00 into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open blipped-up to 2097.75, and then began sliding. Its 2093.00 low greeted Europe”s opens, extending down to 2089.00. That was retraced to test 2093.00 as resistance, which has held as resistance for the past two hours.

If, then…
Having trended up through the prior close, gapping down under the prior afternoon”s 2091.50 bias environment low could form a “session-long decline” setup. When attempted across a weekend, this setup often fails and resolves up. Often. But sometimes they gain traction. Regardless of how it might begin, today is vulnerable to a corrective dip after Friday confirmed Thursday”s breakout.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2098.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.50 would be likely to trigger the 2088.75 bias-down signal.