The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon”s bias environment was greeted at ~1422.00, 40 points under Wednesday”s ~1462.00 close. The balance of the afternoon was choppy, but probed only 2 points lower. The first lower probe might have been considered a bullish victory had its recovery been maintained. But that was completely retraced. There was absolutely no bullish reason for that extra dip, which made the bearish timing much, much more immediate. Nevertheless, one more failed bounce to 1928.25 worked itself in before the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
The last failed bounce extended down without delay to fresh lows at 1915.00. Hope springs eternal, and Thursday”s last failed bounce to 1928.25 was attacked to within 1 tick. That was into and out of Europe”s opens. And that was the end of that. A new downleg fell to new lows at 1911.25.

If, then…
One of the two bullish paths starts by gapping down to fulfill the 1910.00 target, and failing to attract new sponsorship, the weekend”s impending illiquidity squeezes a reversal back up through Thursday afternoon”s highs. One of the two bearish paths start that way, too, by gapping down and then extending. Impending illiquidity can cut either way, and the opening 15 minutes of volatility will tell us much about that. Regardless, trending in one direction or the other is overwhelmingly likely.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1913.75 would be likely also to trigger the 1917.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1908.75 would be likely also to renew the bias-down signal by exceeding its 1910.25 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 1925.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.