The First Trade…

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
A momentary surge to 2079.50 before Thursday’s open was retraced back under Wednesday’s 2077.00 high before the cash session got underway. The reversal extended down to 2071.75 soon after the open. Holding the bias-up signal’s test had put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down another signal several points lower. But the bearish setup was invalidated by rallying through the bias environment’s exit. Fresh highs came within 2-3 ticks of the 2082.25 objective before settling in for an afternoon of narrow ranging around Wednesday’s 2077.00 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
A momentary surge to 2080.00 was retraced as quickly back into Thursday afternoon’s range. The range persisted as narrowly as it had Thursday afternoon, until Europe’s opens launched a break lower. So far, Thursday morning’s low has been attacked to within 2 ticks at 2072.25.

If, then…
Thursday afternoon had missed an opportunity for surging to fresh session highs. Its consequence was to probe fresh session, but the narrow range persisted. That didn’t make a break less likely, which overnight action is trying, albeit still 4 points short of its likely objective to retest Thursday’s 2068.50 pre-open low. Its test should be brief and rejected quickly to avoid extending down to 2059.50. In either case, the afternoon’s bullish WedEX should prevent a morning meltdown. The bullish WedEX should also prevent an afternoon meltdown, so long as the window isn’t entered under 2059.50.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 2071.75 would be likely to trigger the 2073.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2076.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.