The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Friday morning”s wide ranging, in and out of negative territory, ended with relentless trending well under prior lows. But sellers gained traction for the effort. The bias environment”s 1919.00 exit was on its way to probing under the noon hour”s low, confirmed by the final hour”s 1914.00 entry and the 3:10-3:20 window trending down to fresh lows. The cash session made it to 1899.50, and futures extended down to 1893.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open gapped down a little to 1892.00 and then slid a lot to 1880.50. Bouncing repeatedly pierced the 1886.00 bias-down target as resistance, while essentially ranging sideways to form a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern began resolving up with Europe”s opens, and has extended to 1901.25.

If, then…
The pattern at Thursday”s close was projecting a duplicate of that day”s 40-point drop. That measurement was fulfilled at Sunday night”s low. This reminds me of forecasting several years ago for a 1000-point (Dow) downday that was fulfilled by also including a Sunday night low. That was in the midst of a more extended decline than this one, but we should still be prepared for possibility that selling pressure is satisfied. But even the most bullish scenario need not reverse up without a post-open dip — the most bearish scenario would allow only a brief opening bounce.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1903.50-1904.00 would be increasingly likely not to trigger the 1894.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. A bounce has room up to 1914.25-1917.75 through 9:45 before being any likelier to trigger the 1911.00 bias-up signal.