The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Monday afternoon”s bias environment was almost identical to Friday. First, the last 60-90 minutes slid 30 points to new lows at 1865.00. Also, the final hour”s entry at 3:00 was under the bias environment”s low and the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended down. Sellers gained traction for their efforts again. One difference: Friday”s drop was exacerbated by the weekend”s illiquidity, which wasn”t a factor Monday afternoon.

Overnight action”s new info…
A blip down to 1863.75 was recovered to 1878.00, but that has been retraced down to 1865.00. Now a shallower bounce has been consolidating.

If, then…
Is the same pattern repeating for third consecutive day? That is, the early defense that fizzles later. The timing would be different, with the defense being isolated to overnight action. Perhaps some buying could influence the open before capitulation, but I would not hesitate to sell the first signs of weakness no matter how immediate. No accumulative pattern has formed.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1867.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning”s 1876.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1863.00 would be likely to trigger the 1865.50 bias-down signal.