The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
The third consecutive morning denial exercise had once again avoided trending down Tuesday, while also holding tests of any relevant resistance like 1882.50 and 1893.00. And once again, the afternoon”s no-bias environment began lapsing and the decline resumed. Its 1877.00 exit was under the noon hour”s low, which was more obviously bearish than Friday or Monday, and the final hour”s entry was under both. The slide touched 1865.00 overnight lows and bounced, which was a little different.

Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s late bounce initially extended overnight to test 1882.50 resistance by 3 ticks. Its reaction down to 1870.00 tried recovering 9 points, but then Europe”s opens triggered another reaction down to attack 1865.00. Its recovery attempt also failed, the worst failure yet, sliding sharply to new lows at 1857.50.

If, then…
A test of yesterday morning”s 1859.00 bias-down target was put into play by holding tests of both bias-up parameters. It didn”t become “unfinished business below,” but it is still support. The pre-open slide just tested it. And retested it, while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. It”s a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday — retesting it after bouncing back into yesterday”s range above 1865.00 could form a bottom that reverses up sharply for a Wreversal Wednesday. The alternative is probably capitulation that extends through tomorrow morning.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1871.75 would be unlikely to trigger this morning”s 1867.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under this morning”s 1859.00 bias-down target would be likely also to extend under it through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.