The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
S&Ps reached their maximum deficit at 1813.00, down 59 points as Wednesday afternoon”s bias environment got underway. Its reaction up retesting the morning”s ~1861.00 high by a couple of points. That was still down 11 points from Tuesday”s cash session close, and still in negative territory… Buyers gained no traction for the effort as the bias environment”s exit and final hour”s entry each were within the noon hour”s range. Then buyers overreached by extending to higher highs through the session”s last 45 minutes.

Overnight action”s new info…
Reacting down through the futures close probed slightly lower at the Globex open, touching 1842.00. Bouncing peaked at 1857.25 through Europe”s opens. Then things soured, soon plunging to test 1819.00. A trading range has developed back up to 1834.00 and down to 1815.00 — just a couple of points above yesterday”s low.

If, then…
Well, that answers that. Probing the 1840.00 corrective bounce target by so much and for so long undermined my corrective bounce template. The bounce was likely, but it was likely to resolve in new lows. Gapping down at or under 1826.50-1834.50 would reject all of the probing above 1840.00. Recovering any of those levels through the open would undermine sellers.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1833.75 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by also remaining under the 1839.75 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 1826.50 would be likely also to probe under yesterday”s 1813.00 low today, if not already this morning.