The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Bullard”s “pause-taper” comments Thursday morning extended a recovery that was starting to falter — if not already resuming the overnight slide. The morning”s test of Wednesday”s 1861.00-1862.50 area highs was probed up to 1870.00 in the afternoon. The close fell back under Wednesday”s highs.

Overnight action”s new info…
A wide range from 1851.00-1864.00 broke higher soon after Europe”s opens. The 22 point rally barely hesitated at Wednesday and Thursday”s highs while trending up to 1876.50. A consolidation support by this morning”s 1872.50 bias-up target blipped-up to 1878.75, and being only a blip, reversed back down to the range”s 1872.50 lower-end.

If, then…
The bearish WedEX forecasts Friday afternoon”s price action, and often the morning”s behavior can be contrary. Less so when gapping open on expiration, which can make the entire session more single-minded. Especially when the opening 15 minutes of volatility trends throughout. Price action through 9:45 that has trended will be likely to persist in that direction throughout the day. Gapping up on expiration is likelier to reverse down from there, so not reversing down through the open would be bullish, and would start to suggest the bearish WedEX will invert.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1877.00 would be likely also to exceed this morning”s 1872.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal… with potential for extending to 1901.50 or 1906.00. Exiting the open under 1860.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1863.00 bias-up signal, putting into play at least an offsetting test of the 1841.00 bias-down signal