The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Not reversing down at Wednesday”s open was likely to marginalize sellers through the morning, if not through the noon hour. Regardless of which, trending up was unlikely. Probing fresh highs above 1941.00 resistance into the bias environment”s exit was rejected into noon, fulfilling a reversal setup. So strong was the reversal that the afternoon”s first sell signal that triggered under 1940.25  extended 12 points before violating a bounce limit. The bias environment”s exit bounced up to 1931.50, and the final hour flushed to 1920.50-1921.25 at the cash session close. Futures bounced to 1927.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
Intraday swings took a rest, for awhile. Sideways ranging defined essentially by 1922.50-1928.50 greeted Europe”s opens at the range”s upper-end. A quick dip to its lower-end ricocheted up to fresh highs that soon spiked up to 1939.00. Sliding back to 1928.50 has reacted back up.

If, then…
Recovering 1920.50-1921.25 Tuesday afternoon had put into play 1941.00. Retracing it immediately and completely expends a lot of near-term selling pressure, and sellers gained no traction for yesterday afternoon”s efforts (i.e. their targets were met and held, fully rewarding them, without establishing new lower targets). Meanwhile, yesterday”s close trended down, and the afternoon”s high is the bias environment”s high, so gapping up above it would form a “session-long rally” setup. By the same token — by its flip-side, actually — posturing to fulfill the setup but not triggering it can have the opposite effect. And the overnight rally is well-postured to gap up enough, so not extending higher immediately could be very bearish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1933.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1931.25 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1927.50 would be likelier not to trigger the 1925.75 bias-up signal, and put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.