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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday morning”s dip under Thursday afternoon”s 1941.50 low was recovered to probe above Thursday afternoon”s 1956.25 high. Holding the morning”s probe through the 10:15 bias timing window had robbed its sellers of their traction. Similarly, the afternoon”s probes held through relevant timing windows, too — the bias environment”s exit and the final hour”s entry failed to improve. The final hour ticked higher anyway, closing at 1958.00-1960.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Momentum continued overcoming the lack of traction as Sunday night”s open extended to 1963.00. A reaction down recovered even higher to attack 1966.00 through Europe”s opens. Gravity may have been switched back on, since a 12-point drop is probing back under Friday”s highs down to 1953.50.

If, then…
Overnight highs peaked 6 ticks short of touching this morning”s 1967.25 bias-up target. Its bias-down signal at 1954.25 has been attacked to within 1 tick. Probing twice above Friday”s highs warns of intraday trending attempts. Their interim dips back to lower and lower lows doesn”t actually suggest trending will fail, but that the first credible attempt will be likelier to extend. Credibility might trigger a preliminary signal, if not waiting to trigger either bias signal. Don”t forget that the rally”s next higher resistance after 1941.00 is 1963.50, and its influence can have the opposite effect.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1963.50 would be likely also to trigger the 1960.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1951.25 would be likely to trigger the 1954.25 bias-down signal.