The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning”s rally fulfilled the outstanding 1984.25 target, which was the rally”s highest calculable target, leaving overbought RSIs outstanding. Reacting down through the noon hour finally bounced off of the afternoon”s 1971.50 bias-down signal”s support. That extended down to 1961.00 from a 4-point bounce into the FOMC news. Several attempts to extend down were unsuccessful, and their “ineffectual pessimism” squeezed out a late buy signal above 1970.00 that bounced to 1978.50. But it was too late to gain traction. The close retrace all of the bounce.

Overnight action”s new info…
A narrow 3-1/2 point range finally began firming into Europe”s opens, and then soon accelerated higher to test this morning”s 1980.00 bis-up signal by 3 ticks. A relentless decline since then is now probing yesterday”s low by a couple of points down to 1959.75.

If, then…
So, the end of FOMC”s QE finally came with whimper, and not a roar. Not, yet. Other than being a delayed response, capitulating today seems a little too easy. And despite there being no post-FOMC trending, the market already has retraced the news reaction(s) — first probing its high and now its low. That usually takes a week, but there wasn”t much this time to retrace. Retracing all of yesterday”s drop so soon today would be more credible than extending it today, any deeper than to first test “lower prior highs” at 1955.00-1956.00. Remember that extending the recovery to 1984.25 already prevented this two-week rally from being a simple correction of the prior decline, so immediately rolling over isn”t likely.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1966.00 would start becoming unlikely to trigger the 1968.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, although recovering 1972.50 by 9:45 would be more predictive.