The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday morning”s high barely pierced Friday”s range by 1 tick up to 2016.00, then reversed back into it down to 2008.00. Monday afternoon”s higher high at 2018.25 neutralized prior Globex trend extremes, then reversed back down to 2008.00. The reversal began too late to invalidate the afternoon”s bias-up signal, leaving “unfinished business above” at its 2021.25 bias-up target. Overbought RSIs at 2018.25 require a retest, too.

Overnight action”s new info…
Like a battleground state poll, overnight action has fluctuated widely and repeatedly between negative and positive territory. Each fluctuation has probed a new extreme. A surge that coincided with Europe”s opens touched 2013.75. That was soon reversed down to fresh lows at 2005.00… Crude Oil has wasted no time extending down since yesterday”s break under 79.75 confirmed 77.44 and 75.40 targets are in-play, already dropping to within 50 cents of the latter.

If, then…
Two pieces of unfinished business above didn”t prevent yesterday afternoon”s slide, so it wouldn”t prevent this morning from extending down further. First,  2006.00 must break through a relevant timing window, after having held three tests overnight. So far. Opening back in positive territory would be likely to extend up at a steep pace and retest yesterday”s highs up to 2022.00. Still struggling at the open would be difficult to avoid dipping to 1989.50. Although trending during election days isn”t common, a temporary 15-point intraday probe would not be unusual.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2003.75 would be likely also to trigger this morning”s 2006.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2013.50 would be likely to trigger the 2015.50 bias-up.