The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The market will always go where the market wants to go. Yesterday”s example of that was the eventual test of 2028.25, the morning”s bias-up target. Putting it into play was all but assured — that “all but assured” referring to the potential for reacting to an unfavorable headline. That was the Russia-Ukraine news, which triggered the morning”s slide. But that was also a test of the 2011.25 bias-down signal, whose test launched a rally through the balance of the session… all the way up to 2028.25. Buyers gained traction in the process, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high, and entering the final hour trending above both.

Overnight action”s new info…
The trending extended up to 2032.75, with complexity that makes it a “new Gobex trend extreme” requiring an intraday retest. That was already reversing ahead of Europe”s opens, and the entire extension has been retraced down to 2025.50.

If, then…
With buyers having gained traction yesterday, reversing immediately must begin by gapping down. Any shallower weakness would be likely to recover. Rather than being bearish, the reaction down from last night”s highs suggests that optimism is being tempered and not getting overdone from a contrarian perspective. Of course, this morning”s Employment Situation report will trigger a reaction. What”s left from that reaction at the open will be more predictive of the session.

First Trade…
No preliminary levels are available ahead of Employment Situation reports.