The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night”s slide had held at Wednesday morning”s 2027.00 bias-down target. Not until the moment the bias environment began lapsing was the selling pressure rejected by a surge that filled the gap back to Tuesday”s 2036.50 close. All of the elements for a Wreversal Wednesday were outweighed by the afternoon”s “ineffectual pessimism” that repeatedly held the gap”s resistance. So, closing above 2034.25 merited holding long through the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial weakness touched the 2033.50 pullback limit of Wednesday”s hold-long setup. Rallying from there probed Wednesday”s highs by midnight, eventually surging to new highs at 2043.25 .A 5-point dip was recovered to momentarily pierce the high.

If, then…
Probing under Monday afternoon”s lows without gaining traction had created the potential for sharply higher highs. “Ineffectual pessimism” had prevented Wreversal Wednesday from recovering into positive territory, which made follow-through Thursday likely. Despite overnight action fulfilling those influences, intraday uptrending isn”t any likelier today than at any other point during this two-week rally. Gapping up in this pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down intraday back under the prior session”s low — a moving target that has gotten to be pretty deep (dashed red line on chart). The overnight highs are a “new Globex trend extreme,” so exiting the open above or under their interim low (labeled on chart) should dictate this morning”s direction.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2042.75 would be likely also to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding its 2041.25 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open back under 2038.00 would be likely to exceed the bias-up target, and would start threatening not to trigger the 2036.50 bias-up signal.