The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
The Friday Factor of less participation and lower volume exploited the morning”s choppy range that had avoided retesting Thursday”s lows. The noon hour”s exit triggered a buy signal at 1965.75 that surged 13 points to 1879.25 through the bias environment”s exit. The final hour drifted down 6 points before the close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night”s open immediately extended Friday”s late pullback to 1971.50. Its history of support triggered a reaction up to 1977.00, but that failed abruptly by plunging to fresh lows. A consolidation supported by 1966.25 has broken lower to 1961.75, where Friday”s noon hour was entered.

If, then…
The only question about Friday afternoon”s rally failing was whether the afternoon”s high would be retested first. Its attraction above remains outstanding, which is in-line with expectations for the retracement to form a better bottom. That”s also suggested by the overnight drop being influenced by ongoing relevant levels — its first bounce was from 1971.50, which is this morning”s bias-down signal, and its only other significant support is also this morning”s 1966.25 bias-down target. Now the only question about the retest of Thursday”s lows is whether it will be by an actual lower low, or if retracing 61.8% of Friday morning”s range would serve by proxy. That level? The overnight low, 1961.75.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1964.25 would make the 1966.25 bias-down target likely to be exceeded through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1970.00 would suggest the bias-down target won”t break lower through 10:15.