The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning”s drop to 2038.00 was recovered eventually to probe positive territory. But only so far as to retrace Tuesday afternoon”s downleg back to 2050.50. And that was only in a momentary knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC Minutes. No traction was gained either by buyers or sellers, since the bias environment”s exit and final hour”s entry both returned back into the noon hour”s 2043.00-2045.00 range.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming soon resolved back down to 2043.00. Ranging there eventually gave way to probing back under Wednesday”s 2038.00 low — which is being tested now.

If, then…
Wednesday was neither bearish nor bullish, which was bearish, because Tuesday”s breakout wasn”t confirmed. Holding a test of the prior range”s “lower prior highs” could be bullish, if the test were to resolve up without delay Thursday and Friday. That happens more often when the test is delayed until after confirming the breakout. There is no bullish reason to retest Wednesday”s 2038.00 low, not during a relevant timing window. So, not already rejecting this overnight dip before the open would itself be bearish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2044.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2040.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2038.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.