The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Early to bed, early to rise… Thursday”s gap down to Wednesday”s 2038.00 low began recovering immediately. Not triggering bias-down had put into play a test of the 2050.75 bias-up signal. It was met before the morning”s bias environment began lapsing. The balance of the afternoon ranged around it down to 2047.00-2048.00 and up to 2052.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
.Thursday”s pattern opened the door to probing new highs. But, wow… Sideways ranging around Thursday”s highs began trending higher at midnight, and didn”t hesitate until 2059.50. A 2-1/2 point 1-1/2 hour dip launched a 10-point spike up on news of China easing its interest rates. Ranging since then has formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered around 2065.00.

If, then…
Immediate is too late… Rejecting Thursday”s gap down immediately was too late to form a stable base for launching a durable rally. But its recovery had earned the attempt to rally. China”s news exploited that vulnerability. What surprises may bring, expiration often takes away. Gapping open on expiration tends to take one of two paths, either extending the gap relentlessly or else reversing it aggressively. More often it is the latter, but becomes much less likely if the open isn”t trending back down obviously.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2060.50 would be likely also not to exceed the 2058.50 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2056.00 would also be likely at least to test the 2052.25 bias-up signal as support.