The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up 5 points to 2066.50, and surging through the first 2-3 minutes to 2069.00, perfectly duplicated Friday”s open. Again, the immediate reaction was to reverse down sharply. The duplication started ending there, as Monday”s reversal was shallower, dropping only to 2064.25. And the balance of the session ranged sideways instead of firming through the afternoon. The noon hour”s retest of 2064.25 bounced back 3-4 points into the close, leaving “unfinished business above” at the morning”s 2071.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action”s new info…
Blipping-up to 2069.00 was reversed back to Monday afternoon”s lower-end, which again recovered to Monday afternoon”s upper-end. And then higher. Finally, coming to within 3 ticks of 2071.50.

If, then…
The unfinished business above at 2071.50 isn”t neutralized, yet. The 3-tick proximity applies only to intraday tests. Similarly, the overnight hesitation just under it is not necessarily pessimism. Assuming that it is tested, the high of the leg that tests it will be vulnerable to reversing down, no less abruptly than Friday”s test of this area. Not reversing down abruptly could be an early warning that sellers are marginalized, at least for a couple of timing windows as the rally extends.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2071.50 would be likely also to trigger this morning”s 2069.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.