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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Reacting down Tuesday from early strength never quite recovered… Monday night”s rally to a new high at 2073.00 was retested at Tuesday”s open. Its reaction down put into play 2062.00, which was met to within 3 ticks. Bouncing back to 2070.50 during the noon hour reacted down again as the range narrowed further through the afternoon.

Overnight action”s new info…
More early strength, another reaction down… Firming back up to within 1 tick of Tuesday”s 2073.00 high has reacted back down under the afternoon”s high to 2068.00.

If, then…
The pre-holiday liquidity drain is inhibiting trending. This isn”t a narrow range, and we”re currently at its upper-end. So, unless a rally were to break out early, then the likelier “trend” is down. That doesn”t mean a test of support will break, or will break easily — sometimes the path down begins with a failed probe above resistance. Regardless, of the potential to traverse the range, be careful not to force a trade, since narrow ranging is also an option.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2071.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2070.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Opening under 2062.00 would be likely to trigger the 2065.50 bias-down signal.