The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s return from the Thanksgiving holiday seemed to be duplicating Wednesday”s pattern — gapping down to test the 2067.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2074.00 bias-up signal. The setup did play out again. But despite the early close, Friday still found time to trend down sharply and attack the week”s lows at 2064.00 support. A last minute bounce satisfied its 2067.75 target.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open gapped down to 2064.00 and spiked down about 9 points to 2055.25. A bounce to 2062.25 resolved down about 9 points to 2052.00. Now another bounce is finding difficulty at 2061.00.

If, then…
A fresh low was likely this morning because Friday”s drop had stopped optimistically short of touching the 2062.75 prior low, and its bounce”s 2067.75 target had been satisfied to prevent signaling a hold-long. The vulnerability was exploited by weak Black Friday retail reports and Gold”s plunge in reaction to the Swiss referendum. Extreme sentiment gapping out of the weekend can be a sentiment extreme — recovering a prior low through the open could extend today to probe last week”s highs. Otherwise, triggering bias-down would make at least a 1-2 day detour likelier.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2062.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.25 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2056.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.