The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. If that were the case yesterday, then post-open action would have rallied at some point. It did not. Every timing window probed 2051.00 “lower prior highs,” almost down to 2048.00. Ultimately, intraday action did no further damage than had been done intraday, and neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s last swing was dipping back into the range, and it extended down into the Globex open. But its low only attacked intraday lows. A rally back up to Monday”s 2059.00 high reacted back down to attack 2051.00.

If, then…
Not yet rejected, sellers might still be productive. Gapping up above Monday morning”s 2059.00 high would suggest otherwise, forming a “session-long rally” setup. Attacking 2059.00 overnight doesn”t make its recovery any likelier. It doesn”t prevent probing today under yesterday”s lows, but it might create more room to absorb and recover from that selling.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2059.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2057.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2052.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning”s 2057.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. No preliminary level this morning would make the bias-down signal likelier to trigger.