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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday trended higher throughout the day, with only one timing window (noon hour) not probing a fresh session high. The rally gained traction for its efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high and by entering the final hour even higher. The last hour”s test of 2067.75 resistance reacted down to 2064.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s late reaction down was retraced back up to 2067.75 resistance. Its retest was reversed again down to 2063.25. Reactions from its test and retest have reacted up to test and retest 2066.25 — essentially unchanged from yesterday”s close.

If, then…
Having gained traction yesterday afternoon, extending the rally is likelier than reversing it. Reversing it would require gapping down substantially. Overnight action hasn”t yet threatened either extending or reversing the rally. Reaction to ADP”s 8:15 ET jobs report will be next opportunity to jump start volatility. This afternoon”s Fed speakers and Beige Book may be the last opportunity to accelerate trending or to reverse it — in either case, especially if last week”s highs had been probed already intraday.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2069.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2060.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2062.25 bias-down signal.