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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
New high! (Sort of.) Wednesday”s opening rally from 2066.00 extended to 2072.25 through the morning. That stopped pessimistically short of touching last week”s 2073.25 intraday high, which was the minimum objective for Monday”s test of the 2051.00 “lower prior highs.” Consolidation through the afternoon still managed to improve at the right times to gain traction. A single surge to 2076.00 probed a new high before retracing to test 2073.25 into the close

Overnight action”s new info…
Flat to higher ranging is attacking this morning”s 2075.75 bias-up signal. There was no discernible reaction to the BOE policy statement (unchanged/unchanged). ECB is minutes away.

If, then…
Wednesday”s rally gained traction for its efforts, making at least the morning likely to probe fresh highs, so long as the open hasn”t gapped down considerably. Meanwhile, Wednesday”s rally failed to convert its new high close into a breakout, since its singular surge was still overlapping prior highs. Even avoiding a gap down in order to try trending higher would be vulnerable to an afternoon reversal down.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2073.25 would become likely also to trigger the 2075.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Also touching 2079.50 without exceeding it by 9:45 would start to undermine the bias-up for expending too much energy too quickly without attracting new sponsorship soon enough. Exiting the open under 2068.25 would make the bias-up unlikely to trigger.