The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s sellers were very productive. But were they fully rewarded? The post-open bounce never touched Thursday”s 2029.25 cash session close, and barely filled the gap back to its 2024.00 futures close. The morning”s fresh lows at 2005.00-2006.00 reacted up to 2019.00 during the afternoon”s bias environment. But the bias environment exit and final hour”s entry were both within the noon hour”s range, so the decline did not gain traction. That didn”t prevent the last hour from plunging to fresh lows at 1995.00 and 1990.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
A quick dip to 1987.75 was quickly retraced, and overnight action has only trended up. Friday”s last-hour plunge has been retraced by more than 61.8% to 2008.50, still short of its 2013.75 origin.

If, then…
Since Friday”s decline gained no traction for its effort, extending down without delay requires new sponsorship. That would be evident by its steeper slope. Even that must endure a relevant timing window, because exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Gapping down but not extending could produce a strong intraday bounce. But a durable reversal won”t be credible without immediately recovering 2019.00. Otherwise, ranging back down toward overnight lows would be likelier.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2009.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2001.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2002.50 bias-up signal.