The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s sellers were isolated to the morning”s bias environment. The bias timing window (first 45 minutes) had reversed down from testing both bias-up parameters up to 2012.50, putting into play tests of both bias-down parameters down to 1984.00. After meeting both lower objectives, almost every remaining moment of the morning was spent probing even lower. Substantially lower to 1974.50. But then the selling stopped magically at noon, with the entire afternoon ranging sideways, resisted by Friday”s 1995.25 cash session close. Sellers did not gain new traction for their efforts — meaning that their earlier efforts were fully satisfied — but buyers didn”t gain traction, either.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging persisted all night and into the early morning hours, ignoring the positives and/or negatives of poor economic data from China. Then it seems the Ruble has become a factor. Probing a fresh high at 1994.00 two hours ago was reversed back into the range, and then suddenly through its lower-end, extending down sharply to this morning”s 1972.50 bias-down target. Its consolidation suddenly broke lower to 1961.50, and reacted back up to 1972.50.

If, then…
To coin a phrase: “An isolated sell-off here, and an isolated sell-off there, and pretty soon we”re talking about a real sell-off.” The decline”s next lower objective was essentially 1969.00. The 1972.50 bias-down target is the beginning of noise above it. The room for noise below is 1967.25 — if not also 1961.50 for having been approached so aggressively. The best way to absorb a break is to isolate it. So, opening back above this morning”s bias-down target and extending above yesterday”s lows could launch a corrective rally into tomorrow afternoon. But if this pre-open drop is given any post-open oxygen, then it could become that 70-point downleg I noted yesterday was lurking.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1980.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1978.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1967.50 would be likely to renew the bias-down by not recovering the 1972.50 bias-down target.