The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…

Similar to Monday, sellers tried to gain traction, but failed repeatedly. Their one success at triggering the afternoon”s bias-down signal fulfilled its target almost immediately. Notice the chart”s PM timing window comparisons. Fresh lows during the bias environment were recovered back to the noon hour”s low just in time to qualify at the bias environment”s 2:30 exit. You have to look closely to make the distinction. Similarly, the final hour”s entry was trying to probe back under the noon hour”s low, but was still overlapping it at 3:00. Sellers weren”t gaining traction for their efforts. That”s not a buy signal, and it didn”t interfere with the pattern still being likely to probe a fresh low. In fact, a sell signal triggered just before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…

The last sell signal that triggered under 1966.75 extended through yesterday”s futures close to probe a fresh low at 1959.00. That was retraced entirely, back above prior lows, back into positive territory, and back to 1966.75. Pullbacks have been holding tests of 1963.00.

If, then…
Tuesday”s last sell signal was likely to probe fresh lows overnight, and somewhat likely to greet Wednesday”s open in rally mode. The actual low stopped optimistically short of touching the first attraction at Monday”s 1957.00 opening gap. So, the rubber band could have been stretched a little further overnight before trying to snap back this morning. But opening any higher would be very compelling for launching a morning rally.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1968.00 would be likely at least to test this morning”s 1970.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1972.25 would be likely also to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1961.25 would be likely to probe fresh overnight lows.