The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s recovery reacted down 31 points, retracing 61.8% of the rally from overnight lows. The drop began as the morning”s bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 and ended when the afternoon”s bias environment was confirmed at 1:30. The balance of the session would have been content and justified simply to range sideways, but another downleg developed to fresh post-open lows. The second downleg also measured 31 points from its origin. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the morning”s high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Post-close news that the ESFS had been downgraded slightly sent price down deeper. But only a little, and only temporarily. Overnight action has otherwise trended back up 12 points to 1979.00. That is a 2 ticks pessimistically short of touching yesterday”s first reaction down from the morning”s high. In fact, its reaction down to 1972.50 has now recovered almost entirely.

If, then…
If the correction template is still on-track into today”s FOMC events, then the open should already have retraced much more of yesterday afternoon”s second downleg. Retracing all of it before the open could even form a “session-long rally” setup. That can cut either way, especially after yesterday morning”s buyers got ahead of themselves — forming the session-long rally setup but not triggering it could invert into a session-long decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1982.00 and especially above 1985.75 would be likely also to trigger the 1982.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1969.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and more likely at least to test the 1963.50 bias-down signal.