The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap up to 2083.25 had probed higher and higher highs around 2088.00 in both the morning and afternoon. But despite the bias environment exit being above the noon hour”s high, both it and the final hour”s entry were still only ranging around the morning”s high. Lacking momentum, the final hour eventually reversed back down to 2083.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging through Europe”s opens have been spooked by Greek election results. Spiking down to 2076.00 probed under Wednesday”s low, attacked Tuesday”s low, and touched last Monday”s last-minute high. Bouncing to 2082.50 has been supported by 2079.00, which is being tested again now.

If, then…
Wednesday”s low-volume session protected the rally from Tuesday”s potentially bearish setup, by inhibiting sponsorship of an opening drop. Friday”s illiquidity formed another version of the bearish setup, which this morning”s open is indicated to trigger. Or, at least, to try. Opening weakness is only half the battle. Trapping sellers through the open would become as bullish as not being trapped would be bearish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.75 would be likely also to renew the bias-down signal by exceeding its 2074.75 bias-down target through 10:15. Opening above 2084.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2081.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.