The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
2014 started to end with a whimper. Then came the bang, as Wednesday”s noon hour began by breaking aggressively under the morning”s ~2075.50 lows. But testing two-week old prior lows at 2068.00 provided only a temporary pause to neutralize oversold RSIs. Then it was back to work, with two more downlegs testing 2058.00 and 2051.00. RSIs diverged positively at the latter, but it was too late for counter-trend sponsorship to exploit. Sellers gained traction for their efforts.

Overnight action”s new info…
Thursday night”s open gapped up to immediately pierced the 2056.00. buy signal, which had been avoided during Wednesday”s late consolidation. The rally extended into Europe”s opens, probing this morning”s bias-up target by  point up to 2067.00, and then retesting it while RSIs diverged negatively. Its reaction down has tested and retested 2058.00, still well into positive territory, and supported by this morning”s 2059.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
A lot of buying pressure has been expended overnight, but it has already been well rewarded. Resuming the overnight recovery is difficult when the 2066.00 bias-up target not only has been met, but also has been so influential. If this morning”s action isn”t rejecting and retracing more of Wednesday”s drop, then it is likely extending it to lower lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2064.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2066.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Opening back under 2056.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2059.25 bias-up signal. And not even holding above 2053.50 through 9:45 would be likely to trigger the 2050.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.