The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Despite having met and held the decline”s 2040.00 target at Friday”s low, the decline resumed Monday by gapping down. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. So, not reversing quickly suggests that there is plenty of extreme to come. In fact, the balance of the session trended down into the final hour”s test of 2010.00. In fact, although not by decisive margins, the afternoon”s timing windows each were lower than the last — sellers gained traction for the effort.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s last-hour bounce had nearly fulfilled its potential to 2020.25. Meeting it soon after the Globex open was reacted down 9 points through early-morning. Another bounce, now 90 minutes old, is probing fresh highs up to 2022.50.

If, then…
Monday”s low was a 61.8% retracement of the prior rally leg, making today vulnerable to a bounce. The first of its two 2022.50 and 2029.00 objectives has been touched. The higher target remains likelier — but not if the first objective isn”t exceeded through the open since it has been touched already.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2022.50 (and also above 2024.00 if it were touched already) would be likely also to trigger the 2023.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2013.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and at least test the 2011.50 bias-down signal.