The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Rejecting Tuesday morning”s rally to attack 2052.00 (which was last week”s corrective bounce potential, and already rejected) was reversed sharply down to 2001.00. Probing under Monday”s 2015.25 low throughout the afternoon”s bias environment didn”t prevent the close from still overlapping 2015.25 — neither recovering it nor rejecting it. A late bounce did peak at its 2022.00-2023.00 bounce potential to fulfill that buying pressure. And simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were left outstanding at the low, requiring its eventual retest.

Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging at 2015.25 soon gave way, and yesterday”s lows were probed down to 1996.25. All of the overnight drop has been retraced back up to 2019.50. Reacting down from there is testing 2004.00 against the background of JPM”s earnings miss.

If, then…
Retracing the overnight drop is interesting, since the drop neutralized the attraction to yesterday”s oversold RSIs, while also probing fresh lows. But not converting that into a favorable open trending even higher probably won”t avoid dipping again intraday. And gapping down to and/or through yesterday”s lows could ensure the intraday dip won”t recover.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2002.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by also failing to recover the 2004.00 bias-down target at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2014.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2009.25 bias-down signal.