The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s close had only attacked the afternoon short-squeeze”s minimum objective above 2007.00. Buyers nevertheless gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high, joined by the 3:10-3:20 window trending to fresh session highs. Oversold RSIs at the session”s 1981.25 low were left outstanding.

Overnight action”s new info…
Wild swings are stepping it up. First, post-close action quickly fulfilled 2007.00”s probe, up to its likely target of piercing 2010.00. Ranging narrowly there through midnight surged to test 2027.00. Then half of the post-close 10-point gain was retraced into Europe”s opens, and a consolidation resolved down by plunging to 1986.00 (Swiss Franc cap removed). A 25-point reaction up has been retraced and recovered again.

If, then…
The players have changed, but the game remains the same. Overnight developments are reminiscent of the October 1987 decision to stop defending the Dollar vs. Mark,  triggering the Black Monday crash. Last night”s Swiss decision shocked the market, which was in the process of rewarding Wednesday”s buyers for their efforts. A lot. None of which matters if Thursday”s open maintains a gap under yesterday afternoon”s prior relative lows. If the open has absorbed and recovered from the overnight dip, then new highs probably wouldn”t be far behind. The trend is otherwise down.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2003.25-2004.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1998.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2007.00 would be likely at least to test the 2010.25 bias-up signal.