The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s bias environment exit was within the noon hour”s range, so entering the final hour higher or lower wasn”t going to give anybody was gaining traction for their efforts. In fact, a break above 1994.00 probed its minimum 1997.00 objective to attack its maximum 1998.75 potential. Any higher would have been bullish through the close. Having expended all but 2 ticks of available buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort, the balance of the session trended back down to the lows at 1984.75. Futures got volatile into their close, surging 8 points and then cutting that in half.

Overnight action”s new info…
Get down, and stay down, apparently… Thursday”s post-close swing helped to extend the late dive as the drop extended relentlessly and deeply down to 1970.25. It was all retraced into and out of Europe”s opens. But 1988.75 reacted back down to almost 1973.00. Another recovery to 1988.00 has reacted down to almost 1976.00. Having retraced new highs to back under prior lows, last night formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require intraday retest eventually.

If, then…
First, the bullish scenario: Opening above yesterday”s lows and above the overnight range would shift the paradigm into reversal mode. It”s a perfect storm of expiration trending, its last-minute twist on position jockeying, and the impending illiquidity of a three-day holiday weekend, a substantial rally would be underway. We”d still assume a bearish WedEX influences the afternoon — although WedEX could invert to bullish by exiting the morning”s bias environment above Wednesday”s 2005.00-2008.00 close… Sadly, now, the bearish scenario: Overnight lows are an attraction, and not gapping up above a prior high would put them into play. Also, greeting a weekend with only gradually lower and lower new relative lows can discover a lot of bottom-fishers and knife catchers suddenly trying to fit through the exit.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1984.50 would be less likely to trigger the 1983.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1974.75 would be likely also to extend under the 1977.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, having potential for extending down to 1958.00 and 1955.00. And then 18 or 30 points lower.