The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s expiration had recovered from probing fresh lows overnight down to 1970.00. Extending the recovery wasn”t embraced initially, but a rally eventually got underway to test 2005.00. Friday”s late-afternoon surge tested 2014.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night soon extended that nearly 10 points to attack 2024.00. Crashing China stocks were the catalyst for a pullback to Monday morning”s 2003.00 low. That has now been recovered entirely to test and retest 2024.00 by 3 ticks.

If, then…
WedEX”s bearish influence might have been responsible for how late Friday afternoon”s ranging finally broke higher, but that has since extended. Friday afternoon”s ranging formed a Symmetrical Triangle whose breakout might be false, and preparing to reverse down more substantially — exceeding Sunday night”s highs through this morning”s open would avoid that. Extreme optimism is being tested now, with MS just moments ago joining last week”s earnings misses by BAC, JPM and GS. Of course, the previous misses helped to cushion the MS reaction, and now the biggest investment banks” earnings are all history.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2018.75 would be unlikely to exceed the 2022.75 bias-up target through 10:15, which would avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Back under 2012.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2016.50 bias-up signal, putting into play tests of both bias-down parameters.