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The First Trade. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Flat-to-higher ranging through the holiday had only fattened up the market for Tuesday morning”s slaughter. But sellers were done by noon. First, the open rejected both bias-up parameters and put into play both bias-down parameters. They were fulfilled by the morning”s 26-point post-open plunge, on the way back to Friday afternoon”s low. The balance of the session rallied, stopping pessimistically short of touching resistance. The afternoon rally gained traction for its effort, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high and entering the final hour even higher.

Overnight action”s new info…
Dipping from yesterday”s 2016.75 close to attack 2013.00 reacted up to 2021.50, perhaps inspired by China”s market surge. Perhaps. China”s plunge three days ago had only a temporary impact. Similar to that delay, another dip has probed lower to 2008.00. This is the origin of yesterday”s last 30-minute 12-point surge,

If, then…
Having gained traction, yesterday”s rally is owed the reward of probing higher highs this morning. This reward would be invalidated by gapping down under a relevant low. That would become likely if this overnight drop isn”t contained pretty much here and now. Not containing it would be likely to retest yesterday”s lows, which this stage of the pattern would be unlikely to prevent extending down to last week”s lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2007.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2009.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2014.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.