The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s pre-open surge from the ECB QE had largely round-tripped during the morning. Sideways ranging through the afternoon bias environment was resisted by the untriggered 2043.50 bias-up signal. The timing window”s exit broke higher and rallied sharply into the final hour until touching its 2059.00 target. The balance of the hour ranged narrowly again.

Overnight action”s new info…
Even narrow ranging persisted overnight, albeit at a slightly lower level between 2053.00-2055.00. Firming into Europe”s opens became a surge to fresh highs at 2062.00. Its reaction down to 2055.00 has bounce back up to 2059.00.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon”s rally gained traction for its efforts, so its buyers should be rewarded with control of this morning”s bias environment. Losing traction before the open would forfeit the reward. A pullback still has room down to 2047.50-2048.75 before even threatening the upward momentum. A lot of optimism is expended in avoiding a last hour pullback and again overnight. Probing fresh highs this morning would expend even more optimism, and be vulnerable to reversing down into the weekend. Until triggering bias-up above 2061.50 — which is the room for noise above 2059.00, and which held the overnight surge — I would be cautious about the morning”s upside.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2059.75 would be less likely to trigger the 2049.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2047.50 would be likelier to trigger bias-down. The open must be exited above 2065.25 to be likelier to trigger the 2061.50 bias-up signal.