The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s recovery didn”t gain traction for its effort, despite trending higher through the afternoon, and despite a late 10-point surge. The uptrend”s interim reactions down to higher lows had each prevented greeting key timing windows at a higher high. The late surge originated too late to be relevant, and probed a fresh high only after the cash session close. Additionally, its pre-close and post-close highs each coincided with resistance — 2050.50 the afternoon”s bias-up target, and 2055.00 had defined Friday”s intraday resistance. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Monday”s 2034.50 opening low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Having expended unavailable energy through Monday”s close, an overnight pullback became likely. Sideways ranging between 2052.00-2054.00 had already broken lower 3-5 points into Europe”s opens. A blip-up into the range was reversed as quickly, and much more substantially, just now touching 2040.00.

If, then…
Yesterday”s close surged to fresh highs despite the afternoon failing to gain traction. This was the basis for my warning Market Wrap warning about a likely overnight pullback. My likely objective was 2044.00, with potential to 2041.00. The lower objective as met only momentarily by a knee-jerk reaction to PG missing earnings, and perhaps also from MSFT gapping down under yesterday”s after hours dip. The overnight drop has probably extended too deep and too late for a recovery to gap up, so rallying this morning will depend on opening too low to attract new sellers. A lot of econ reports are on their way, which are likely to be a catalyst for more volatility. The overnight drop remains vulnerable to extending so long as 2044.00 isn”t recovered.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be likely also trigger the 2044.00 bias-down signal  at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2046.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias.down.