The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Exiting Tuesday morning”s bias environment back within the open”s 2021.50-2029.75 range had suggested the morning”s probe under Sunday night”s low down to 2013.25 was absorbed. Exiting the noon hour above the open”s range had suggested the recovery was gaining traction. Despite having extended to 2037.00, closing action dropped to within 2 ticks of the opening range”s 2021.50 lower end. The cash session closed at 2023.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s late drop began recovering into the futures close up to 2031.25, and out of it up to a fresh high at 2039.00. Despite extending sharply higher well before midnight to 2046.50, a 12-point slide to 2028.50 has erased yesterday”s overnight gains to test the upper-end of yesterday”s 2021.50-2029.75 opening range. Another rally effort is nnow back up to 2038.00.

If, then…
Yesterday”s post-close Market Wrap identified 2041.00 as signaling a bullish session today. That probably seemed a little silly, even while yesterday”s futures close was extending 8 points above the 2023.00 cash session close. The preferable bullish open above 2044.00 must have seemed even further-fetched. Well, the more things change, the more they remain the same: Both levels looked tame when they were being probed by midnight, but yesterday”s 2031.25 has been retraced — and then some, almost 3 points lower. Regardless, the cash session close is still substantially lower, and it is more relevant than the futures close. So long as that holds, at least a morning rally is likely before anxiousness can paralyze price action ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC news.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2032.25 would become less likely to trigger the 2030.50 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2041.00 would be likely to exceed the 2037.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.